4/17/2024 0 Comments Food fight predator vs preydrought: Mduma et al., 1999 Foley et al., 2008). Extreme climatic conditions also affect herbivore demographic parameters and ultimately population abundances (e.g. For example, several studies linked rainfall to herbivore abundance in savanna ecosystems ( East, 1984 Ogutu et al., 2008), or showed the influence of climatic variations on the dynamics of several populations of Northern ungulates ( Forchhammer et al., 1998 Post and Stenseth, 1999). As a result, climate indirectly influences prey abundance through density-dependent processes ( Saether, 1997 Forchhammer et al., 1998). Herbivore body condition, in turn, influences demographic parameters, such as survival ( Bender et al., 2007) or fecundity ( Cook et al., 2004), which ultimately affect herbivore population abundance. First, by altering primary production quality and quantity, climatic conditions influence the body condition of large mammalian herbivores (rainfall: Bourgarel et al., 2002 Owen-Smith, 2002 NAO: Mysterud et al., 2001 snow: Saether and Gravem, 1988). Therefore, understanding how climate changes will affect species through their biotic interactions is fundamental to grasp the full picture of the impacts of climate changes.Ĭlimate changes have the potential to modify predator–prey interactions, which are central in the functioning of populations, communities and ultimately ecosystems ( Bastille-Rousseau et al., 2018). Even though these changes can sometimes emerge from the direct effect of climate on individuals, they often result from cascading effects occurring through biotic interactions, such as trophic interactions (e.g. Inouye et al., 2000 Moyes et al., 2011) or behaviour ( Candolin and Wong, 2012). Parmesan et al., 1999 Martay et al., 2017), phenology and demography (e.g. So far, most studies on the impacts of climate changes have focussed on describing changes in population distribution and abundance (e.g. Climate changes already have ecological impacts and are, or will soon be, a major driver of species dynamics and survival ( Maclean and Wilson, 2011 Pacifici et al., 2017). Temperature is rising globally and will continue to do so, precipitation regimes are, or will be, locally altered, and extreme climatic events will become more common ( IPCC, 2014b). The Earth’s climate is changing rapidly, largely because of human activities ( IPCC, 2014b). This study highlights the importance of understanding, and accounting for, the vulnerability factors associated to a given predator–prey pair, and improves our comprehension of predator–prey relationships in a changing climate. For example, our results suggest that populations of cursorial predators (such as spotted hyaenas) are expected to fare better than populations of ambush predators (such as African lions) in African ecosystems that will be characterised by an aridification. We discuss how species traits influence the relative importance of the different sources of vulnerability. We show that predictions on how predator abundance responds to climate fluctuations differ depending on how climate influences prey vulnerability (habitat characteristics vs. We account for prey body condition and habitat effects on prey vulnerability to predation. In this theoretical work, we explore, with large mammals of African savannas in mind, how the interplay between climate-induced changes in prey abundance and climate-induced changes in prey vulnerability affects the immediate and long-term responses of predator populations. However, field studies have shown that prey vulnerability is a key feature determining the outcome of predator–prey interactions, which also varies with climatic conditions, via changes in prey body condition or in habitat characteristics (e.g. Most animals experience predation, and a number of models have investigated how climate fluctuations can influence predator–prey dynamics by affecting prey abundance through changes in resource availability. 5Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Oxford University, Oxford, United KingdomĬlimate changes affect the distribution and abundance of organisms, often via changes in species interactions.4CNRS Hwange Environmental Research Development Program, Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research site France, Zone Atelier “Hwange”, Dete, Zimbabwe.3Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France 1Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne Cedex, France.Aïssa Morin 1* Simon Chamaillé-Jammes 2,3,4 Marion Valeix 1,4,5
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